ISLAMABAD:The proscribed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is attempting to reassert control in the former Pakistani tribal areas, has been “emboldened” by the return of the Afghan Taliban to power, according to a report published by the UN Security Council monitoring committee. The committee’s assessment, which it delivered to the UN Security Council on July 25 provides light on how the TTP has been gaining strength in Afghanistan ever since the Afghan Taliban seized power in August 2021, according to the study. The research also emphasises how other terrorist groups are operating in the country’s war-torn territory under the TTP’s cover. The research has actually supported Pakistan’s contention that the TTP was operating out of Afghanistan. “Member states assess that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is gaining momentum in its operations against Pakistan,” the statement reads.
“Since the reunification with several splinter groups, the TTP has aspired to re-establish control of territory in Pakistan after being emboldened by the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan,” the report notes.
According to the UNSC report, the TTP was focused on high-value targets in border areas and soft targets in urban ones.
“The TTP’s capability is assessed as not matching its ambition, given that it does not control territory and lacks popular appeal in the tribal areas.”
The report, however, notes that in June, certain TTP elements were relocated away from the border area, as part of the Taliban’s efforts to reign in the group under pressure from the government of Pakistan.
“The member states are concerned that the TTP could become a regional threat if it continues to have a safe operating base in Afghanistan,” the report says.
Some member states registered concern that the TTP might provide an umbrella under which a range of foreign groups operate, or even coalesce, avoiding attempts of control by the Taliban.
One member state noted the possibility of al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and the TTP merging.
It assessed AQIS to be providing guidance to the TTP for conducting increased attacks within Pakistan.
It was also reported that ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement) training camps in Kunar province were being used for the TTP fighters.
The report says that the situation in Afghanistan has become more complex, with member state concerns increasing about the ability of Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan to project a threat into the region, and further afield into Europe.
The member states reported that Afghanistan remained a place of global significance for terrorism, with approximately 20 terrorist groups operating in the country.
One member state assessed that the goal of those terrorist groups was to spread their respective influence across the regions and to build theocratic quasi-state entities.
The relationship between the Taliban and al Qaeda remains close and symbiotic.
For the most part, al Qaeda operates covertly in Afghanistan to help promote the narrative that the Taliban comply with agreements not to use Afghan soil for terrorist purposes.
Under the patronage of high-ranking officials of the de facto Taliban authorities, al Qaeda members infiltrate law enforcement agencies and public administration bodies, ensuring the security of al Qaeda cells dispersed throughout the country.
The capability of al Qaeda to conduct large-scale terror attacks remains reduced while its intent remains firm. The group uses Afghanistan as an ideological and logistical hub to mobilise and recruit new fighters, while covertly rebuilding its external operations capability.
The al Qaeda is in a reorganisation phase, establishing new training centres in Kunar and Nuristan provinces. The member states assessed that al Qaeda would likely remain dormant in the short-term while developing its operational capability and outreach.
The al Qaeda leaders seek to strengthen cooperation with regional terrorist groups of non-Afghan origin located in Afghanistan, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), ETIM/TIP and the Jamaat Ansarullah, intending to infiltrate and establish strongholds in countries in Central Asia.
One member state assessed that the mid- to long-term prospects of al Qaeda depended on the overall situation in Afghanistan. Should Afghanistan descend into chaos and insecurity, the base for al Qaeda would likely strengthen. Should the country achieve stability, al Qaeda would likely seek to shift.
