ISLAMABAD: As compared to the negative growth of 0.4% for the previous fiscal year 2019-20, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth rate at 1.5% for the current fiscal year 2020-21.
However, with the expectation that the recovery of economic activities will help improve the growth trajectory in the aftermath of overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic, the incumbent government has envisioned a GDP growth rate target of 2.1% for fiscal year 2020-21. On the other hand, the international regulatory body had projected a positive GDP growth rate of 1.9% for Pakistan in the last fiscal year, but after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the GDP growth had fallen and stood at a negative 0.4% for the fiscal year that ended on June 30, 2020.Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast is projected at 1.5% for the current fiscal year as the difference from October’s last projection was 0.5%, according to the Economic Outlook for 2021 update released by the IMF. The IMF had projected GDP growth rate at 1% but has now revised it upward to 1.5% for the current fiscal year.
The IMF has projected that Pakistan’s growth rate will be 4% of GDP in the next fiscal year 2021-22. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook for 2021 highlights that the global economy is projected to grow at 5.5%. It also showed that the emerging economies stood at 8.3% and Africa at 3.2%. India is projected to grow at 11.5 percent, China 8.1%, Malaysia 7%, Turkey 6%, France 5.5%, the USA 5.1%, Mexico 4.3%, and Nigeria 1.5%.
Meanwhile foreign investors have repatriated approximately $892 million abroad on account of profit and dividend during the first half of this fiscal year (FY21), the latest data by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). This is an increase of $56 million over the same period last year. As the effects of lockdown restrictions slowly dissipate and economic activities improve, the repatriation of profit and dividend by foreign investors is also gradually increasing. From July to December 2020 (first half of FY21), it rose by 7 percent. The higher outflow of profit and dividends also reflects that Pakistan’s economy is performing well and can produce better margins for foreign investors.
