Mian Bilal
Fourth Industrial revolution is upon us and it will transform our society much more radically than the previous ones. First industrial revolution harnessed the steam power to mechanize industrial production, second brought mass industrial production thanks to electricity whereas the third sought to automate this process using information technology. In contrast to these three, the fourth revolution possess immensely disruptive technologies with it and is growing at exponential pace rather than linear. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. We do not yet know just how it will unfold, but one thing is clear: the response to it must be integrated and comprehensive, involving all stakeholders of the global polity, from the public and private sectors to academia and civil society.
Fourth Industrial revolution brings with it a whole host of innovative technologies and ideas that are not only going to transform our understanding of professional and social interactions but the whole paradigm of human superiority is going to be challenged in coming times. It is characterized by a fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres. Never heard before innovations such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and quantum computing that will fundamentally alter how humans work, communicate and think. This transformation is giving rise to a brand-new kind of economy and society that was previously unheard of.
Another unique feature of fourth industrial revolution is that of its pace and scope. Its impact will not be limited to developed countries only and its pace of spread is certainly not that of previous ones. Subcontinent got its first rail line in 1855, 84 years after its invention in United Kingdom. Television technology was introduced in Pakistan in 1964, 23 years after USA. Compared to this, a Middle Eastern teen in the desert city of Riyadh is holding the same iPhone model with technology exactly similar to that of a fortune 500 CEO sitting in his office in New York’s financial district. The possibilities of billions of people connected by mobile devices, with unprecedented processing power, storage capacity, and access to knowledge, are unlimited and unimaginable but one thing is certain. Every sphere of human life is going to be fundamentally affected by them.
All three previous revolutions ultimately gave birth to new economic realities and income levels have consistently risen during past 200 years. Fourth Industrial revolution too has the potential to raise global income levels and improve the quality of life for populations around the world. However, the prevalent concern among global thought leaders is that market balance is going to be tipped in the favor of supply side from consumer side. Consumer is the center of market philosophy right now and every development is thought in terms of their benefit only. Technological innovation in transportation and communication sector will bring drastic cuts in manufacturing cost leading to decrease in market value of consumer.
Inequality is another big concern regarding global economic prospects. On one hand top 1pc control more than 38pc of global wealth and their share is only growing. Whereas the economic conditions of bottom 90pc are getting worse in absolute terms. Couple it with recent projections by World Bank that more than 5 million jobs are going to be lost to automation till 2020 and the future world is seen much more inequal than it today is. In this future, talent, more than capital, will represent the critical factor of production. This will give rise to a job market increasingly segregated into “low-skill/low-pay” and “high-skill/high-pay” segments, which in turn will lead to an increase in social tensions.
Rising gap in wealth inequality will lead to social tensions and coupled with increased unemployment due to automation and innovation and psychological disillusionment, human societies are bound to witness an era of unrest and upheavals in global level. Social discontent is likely to be fueled by pervasiveness of digital technologies and the dynamics of information sharing typified by social media. Similarly, the revolutions occurring in biotechnology and AI, which are redefining what it means to be human by pushing back the current thresholds of life span, health, cognition, and capabilities, will compel us to redefine our moral and ethical boundaries.
Understanding the scope and extent of Fourth industrial revolution is immensely crucial for everyone with any interest in future of humanity. There has never been a time of greater promise, or one of greater potential peril. Today’s decision-makers, however, are too often trapped in traditional, linear thinking, or too absorbed by the multiple crises demanding their attention, to think strategically about the forces of disruption and innovation shaping our future. Current education system and policy making mindset cannot cope with rapidly changing nature of work and human interaction. A new and fresh mindset is needed right now to comprehend the challenges posed by changing technologies and devise a suitable way forward. Technology and economy should not dictate human morality, rather be driven by it.
